Radnik Surdulica 4–2 RAD: Result & Stats

Radnik Surdulica

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

RAD

9/26/2020

Super Liga · Round 9Stadion Surdulica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Radnik Surdulica50%

×Draw27%

RAD23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnik SurdulicaExpected goals in this matchRAD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.86

Radnik Surdulica

1.43

RAD

0.86

Radnik Surdulica creates 66% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 53 away

1.14

creates per match

0.55

1.17

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Radnik Surdulica

1.14

RAD

0.55

allows per match

Radnik Surdulica

1.17

RAD

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par

RAD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Surdulica ↓

RAD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Radnik Surdulica or draw

77%

Radnik Surdulica or RAD

73%

Draw or RAD

50%

Winning margin

Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+

25%

RAD wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals

76%

Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals

42%

Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals

17%

RAD 1+ goals

58%

RAD 2+ goals

21%

RAD 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)

69%

RAD (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Surdulica at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

RAD away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Surdulica attack 1.14 + RAD defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.43

RAD attack 0.55 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Radnik Surdulica scores more

50%

level

27%

RAD scores more

23%

Radnik Surdulica at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Radnik Surdulica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff