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Radnik Surdulica vs Javor — Prva Liga 2018

Radnik Surdulica
Radnik Surdulica
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Javor
Javor
3/26/2025Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 26EFBET Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Radnik Surdulica54%
×Draw27%
Javor20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnik Surdulica
1.47
Javor
0.78

Radnik Surdulica creates 88% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 54 away

creates per match

Radnik Surdulica
2.05
Javor
1.30

allows per match

Radnik Surdulica
0.26
Javor
0.89

finishing

Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par
Javor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Surdulica ↓

Javor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Radnik Surdulica or draw
80%
Radnik Surdulica or Javor
73%
Draw or Javor
46%

Winning margin

Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+
27%
Javor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals
77%
Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals
43%
Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals
18%
Javor 1+ goals
54%
Javor 2+ goals
18%
Javor 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)
73%
Javor (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Surdulica at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.26 · 19 matches

Javor away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.89 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Surdulica attack 2.05 + Javor defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.47

Javor attack 1.30 + Radnik Surdulica defence 0.26 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Radnik Surdulica scores more
54%
level
27%
Javor scores more
20%

Radnik Surdulica at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Radnik Surdulica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Radnik Surdulica 2–0 Javor

Radnik Surdulica beat Javor 2-0 in Prva Liga on March 26, 2025.

The match was played at EFBET Stadion in Surdulica.