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Radnik Surdulica vs FK Vozdovac — Super Liga 2026

Radnik Surdulica
Radnik Surdulica
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FK Vozdovac
FK Vozdovac
12/10/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 18EFBET Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Radnik Surdulica45%
×Draw27%
FK Vozdovac28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnik Surdulica
1.40
FK Vozdovac
1.03

Radnik Surdulica creates 36% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 109 away

creates per match

Radnik Surdulica
1.14
FK Vozdovac
0.89

allows per match

Radnik Surdulica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.65

finishing

Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par
FK Vozdovac+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Surdulica ↓

FK Vozdovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Radnik Surdulica or draw
72%
Radnik Surdulica or FK Vozdovac
73%
Draw or FK Vozdovac
55%

Winning margin

Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+
22%
FK Vozdovac wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals
75%
Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals
41%
Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals
17%
FK Vozdovac 1+ goals
64%
FK Vozdovac 2+ goals
28%
FK Vozdovac 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)
62%
FK Vozdovac (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Surdulica at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

FK Vozdovac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Surdulica attack 1.14 + FK Vozdovac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

FK Vozdovac attack 0.89 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Radnik Surdulica scores more
45%
level
27%
FK Vozdovac scores more
28%

Radnik Surdulica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Radnik Surdulica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnik Surdulica vs FK Vozdovac

Radnik Surdulica and FK Vozdovac drew 1-1 in Super Liga on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at EFBET Stadion in Surdulica.