Radnik Surdulica 0–2 FK Crvena Zvezda

Radnik Surdulica

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FK Crvena Zvezda

A. Katai 88', 76'

4/7/2024

Super Liga · Round 29EFBET Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Radnik Surdulica20%

×Draw23%

FK Crvena Zvezda57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnik SurdulicaExpected goals in this matchFK Crvena Zvezda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.82

Radnik Surdulica

0.96

FK Crvena Zvezda

1.82

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 90% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 141 away

1.15

creates per match

2.51

1.14

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Radnik Surdulica

1.15

FK Crvena Zvezda

2.51

allows per match

Radnik Surdulica

1.14

FK Crvena Zvezda

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Surdulica ↓

FK Crvena Zvezda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Radnik Surdulica or draw

43%

Radnik Surdulica or FK Crvena Zvezda

77%

Draw or FK Crvena Zvezda

80%

Winning margin

Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+

7%

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals

62%

Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals

25%

Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals

7%

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals

84%

FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

54%

FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)

25%

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Surdulica at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.14 · 126 matches

FK Crvena Zvezda away — creates 2.51, concedes 0.77 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Surdulica attack 1.15 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.96

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.51 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Radnik Surdulica scores more

20%

level

23%

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more

57%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Katai

FK Crvena Zvezda · M

8.9

Match Events

38'

Aleksandar Kadijević

38'

Cherif Ndiaye

46'

A. Katai← M. Stamenić

61'

V. Bogdanović← J. Anđelković

63'

68'

71'

76'

77'

80'

J. Stanojevic← L. Jovanović

80'

P. Kunić← L. Čumić

88'

A. Katai↳ S. Mijailović

90+3'

O. Cvetkovic← H. Hajdarević

90'

J. Šljivić← C. Ndiaye

90'

O. Mimović← G. Kanga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RadnikFK

Overview

30%Possession70%

10Total Shots16

2Corners4

20Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots16

3On Target4

4Off Target11

3Blocked1

5Inside Box13

5Outside Box3

Passing

30%Possession70%

242Total Passes537

147Accurate Passes464

61%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

20Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1