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Radnik Surdulica vs Dinamo Vranje — Super Liga 2018

Radnik Surdulica
Radnik Surdulica
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
11/3/2018Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 15Stadion Surdulica (Surdulica)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Radnik Surdulica58%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Vranje17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnik Surdulica
1.65
Dinamo Vranje
0.77

Radnik Surdulica creates 114% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 19 away

creates per match

Radnik Surdulica
1.14
Dinamo Vranje
0.37

allows per match

Radnik Surdulica
1.17
Dinamo Vranje
2.16

finishing

Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par
Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Surdulica ↓

Dinamo Vranje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Radnik Surdulica or draw
83%
Radnik Surdulica or Dinamo Vranje
76%
Draw or Dinamo Vranje
42%

Winning margin

Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+
32%
Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals
81%
Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals
49%
Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals
23%
Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
54%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
18%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)
77%
Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Surdulica at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.37, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Surdulica attack 1.14 + Dinamo Vranje defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.65

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.37 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Radnik Surdulica scores more
58%
level
24%
Dinamo Vranje scores more
17%

Radnik Surdulica at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Radnik Surdulica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnik Surdulica vs Dinamo Vranje

Radnik Surdulica beat Dinamo Vranje 2-0 in Super Liga on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Surdulica (Surdulica).