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Radnik Surdulica vs Buducnost Podgorica — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Radnik Surdulica
Radnik Surdulica
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
7/4/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Radnik Surdulica58%
×Draw22%
Buducnost Podgorica20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnik Surdulica
1.90
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00

Radnik Surdulica creates 90% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Radnik Surdulica
2.00
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00

allows per match

Radnik Surdulica
1.00
Buducnost Podgorica
1.80

finishing

Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par
Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Surdulica ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Radnik Surdulica or draw
80%
Radnik Surdulica or Buducnost Podgorica
78%
Draw or Buducnost Podgorica
42%

Winning margin

Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+
34%
Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals
85%
Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals
56%
Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals
29%
Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
63%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
26%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)
75%
Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Surdulica at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Surdulica attack 2.00 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.00 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Radnik Surdulica scores more
58%
level
22%
Buducnost Podgorica scores more
20%

Radnik Surdulica at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Radnik Surdulica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnik Surdulica vs Buducnost Podgorica

Radnik Surdulica beat Buducnost Podgorica 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 4, 2026.