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Radnik Surdulica vs Backa — Super Liga 2018

Radnik Surdulica
Radnik Surdulica
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Backa
Backa
12/15/2018Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 21Stadion Surdulica (Surdulica)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Radnik Surdulica56%
×Draw25%
Backa19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnik Surdulica
1.63
Backa
0.83

Radnik Surdulica creates 96% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 38 away

creates per match

Radnik Surdulica
1.14
Backa
0.50

allows per match

Radnik Surdulica
1.17
Backa
2.11

finishing

Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Surdulica ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Radnik Surdulica or draw
81%
Radnik Surdulica or Backa
75%
Draw or Backa
44%

Winning margin

Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+
31%
Backa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals
80%
Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals
48%
Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals
22%
Backa 1+ goals
56%
Backa 2+ goals
20%
Backa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)
75%
Backa (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Surdulica at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

Backa away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.11 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Surdulica attack 1.14 + Backa defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.63

Backa attack 0.50 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Radnik Surdulica scores more
56%
level
25%
Backa scores more
19%

Radnik Surdulica at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Radnik Surdulica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnik Surdulica vs Backa

Radnik Surdulica beat Backa 3-2 in Super Liga on December 15, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Surdulica (Surdulica).