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Radnik Hadžići vs Zvijezda Gradačac — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Radnik Hadžići
Radnik Hadžići
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
11/19/20221st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 15Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Radnik Hadžići46%
×Draw27%
Zvijezda Gradačac27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnik Hadžići
1.40
Zvijezda Gradačac
0.99

Radnik Hadžići creates 41% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 82 away

creates per match

Radnik Hadžići
1.16
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.02

allows per match

Radnik Hadžići
0.96
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.65

finishing

Radnik Hadžići+0.00on par
Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Hadžići ↓

Zvijezda Gradačac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Radnik Hadžići or draw
73%
Radnik Hadžići or Zvijezda Gradačac
73%
Draw or Zvijezda Gradačac
54%

Winning margin

Radnik Hadžići wins by 2+
22%
Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Radnik Hadžići 1+ goals
75%
Radnik Hadžići 2+ goals
41%
Radnik Hadžići 3+ goals
17%
Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
63%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
26%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Radnik Hadžići (draw refunded)
64%
Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Hadžići at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 96 matches

Zvijezda Gradačac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Hadžići attack 1.16 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.02 + Radnik Hadžići defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Radnik Hadžići scores more
46%
level
27%
Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
27%

Radnik Hadžići at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Radnik Hadžići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Radnik Hadžići 0–3 Zvijezda Gradačac

Zvijezda Gradačac beat Radnik Hadžići 3-0 in 1st League - FBiH on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Hadžići.