Radnik Hadžići 0–0 Orašje: Result & Stats

Radnik Hadžići

FT

0 – 0

Orašje

10/4/2020

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 9Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Radnik Hadžići54%

×Draw24%

Orašje22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnik HadžićiExpected goals in this matchOrašje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.96

Radnik Hadžići

1.67

Orašje

0.96

Radnik Hadžići creates 74% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 46 away

1.16

creates per match

0.96

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Radnik Hadžići

1.16

Orašje

0.96

allows per match

Radnik Hadžići

0.96

Orašje

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnik Hadžići+0.00on par

Orašje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Hadžići ↓

Orašje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Radnik Hadžići or draw

78%

Radnik Hadžići or Orašje

76%

Draw or Orašje

46%

Winning margin

Radnik Hadžići wins by 2+

29%

Orašje wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Radnik Hadžići 1+ goals

81%

Radnik Hadžići 2+ goals

50%

Radnik Hadžići 3+ goals

23%

Orašje 1+ goals

62%

Orašje 2+ goals

25%

Orašje 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Radnik Hadžići (draw refunded)

71%

Orašje (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Hadžići at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 96 matches

Orašje away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Hadžići attack 1.16 + Orašje defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.67

Orašje attack 0.96 + Radnik Hadžići defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Radnik Hadžići scores more

54%

level

24%

Orašje scores more

22%

Radnik Hadžići at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Radnik Hadžići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff