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Radnik Hadžići vs GOŠK Gabela — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Radnik Hadžići
Radnik Hadžići
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
N. Sero 89'
A. Adeshina 19'
10/8/20221st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 9Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Radnik Hadžići35%
×Draw29%
GOŠK Gabela36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnik Hadžići
1.12
GOŠK Gabela
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 66 away

creates per match

Radnik Hadžići
1.16
GOŠK Gabela
1.29

allows per match

Radnik Hadžići
0.96
GOŠK Gabela
1.08

finishing

Radnik Hadžići+0.00on par
GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 61Over: 3961%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Hadžići ↓

GOŠK Gabela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Radnik Hadžići or draw
64%
Radnik Hadžići or GOŠK Gabela
71%
Draw or GOŠK Gabela
65%

Winning margin

Radnik Hadžići wins by 2+
14%
GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Radnik Hadžići 1+ goals
67%
Radnik Hadžići 2+ goals
31%
Radnik Hadžići 3+ goals
10%
GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
68%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
31%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Radnik Hadžići (draw refunded)
50%
GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Hadžići at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 96 matches

GOŠK Gabela away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.08 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Hadžići attack 1.16 + GOŠK Gabela defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.12

GOŠK Gabela attack 1.29 + Radnik Hadžići defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Radnik Hadžići scores more
35%
level
29%
GOŠK Gabela scores more
36%

GOŠK Gabela at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "GOŠK Gabela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
A. Adeshina
89'
N. Sero

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnik Hadžići vs GOŠK Gabela

GOŠK Gabela beat Radnik Hadžići 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on October 8, 2022.

Goals: A. Adeshina (19'), N. Sero (89').

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Hadžići.