Radnik Hadžići 0–1 Čelik: Result & Stats

Radnik Hadžići

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Čelik

11/2/2025

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 11Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Radnik Hadžići39%

×Draw29%

Čelik32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnik HadžićiExpected goals in this matchČelik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.05

Radnik Hadžići

1.20

Čelik

1.05

Radnik Hadžići creates 14% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 42 away

1.16

creates per match

1.14

0.96

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Radnik Hadžići

1.16

Čelik

1.14

allows per match

Radnik Hadžići

0.96

Čelik

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnik Hadžići+0.00on par

Čelik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Hadžići ↓

Čelik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Radnik Hadžići or draw

68%

Radnik Hadžići or Čelik

71%

Draw or Čelik

61%

Winning margin

Radnik Hadžići wins by 2+

17%

Čelik wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Radnik Hadžići 1+ goals

70%

Radnik Hadžići 2+ goals

34%

Radnik Hadžići 3+ goals

12%

Čelik 1+ goals

65%

Čelik 2+ goals

28%

Čelik 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Radnik Hadžići (draw refunded)

55%

Čelik (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Hadžići at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 96 matches

Čelik away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Hadžići attack 1.16 + Čelik defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.20

Čelik attack 1.14 + Radnik Hadžići defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Radnik Hadžići scores more

39%

level

29%

Čelik scores more

32%

Radnik Hadžići at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Radnik Hadžići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff