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Radnik Hadžići vs Čapljina — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Radnik Hadžići
Radnik Hadžići
FT
0 – 0
Čapljina
Čapljina
3/21/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 18Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Radnik Hadžići52%
×Draw25%
Čapljina23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnik Hadžići
1.56
Čapljina
0.94

Radnik Hadžići creates 66% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 23 away

creates per match

Radnik Hadžići
1.16
Čapljina
0.91

allows per match

Radnik Hadžići
0.96
Čapljina
1.96

finishing

Radnik Hadžići+0.00on par
Čapljina+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Hadžići ↓

Čapljina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Radnik Hadžići or draw
77%
Radnik Hadžići or Čapljina
75%
Draw or Čapljina
48%

Winning margin

Radnik Hadžići wins by 2+
27%
Čapljina wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Radnik Hadžići 1+ goals
79%
Radnik Hadžići 2+ goals
46%
Radnik Hadžići 3+ goals
21%
Čapljina 1+ goals
61%
Čapljina 2+ goals
24%
Čapljina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Radnik Hadžići (draw refunded)
69%
Čapljina (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Hadžići at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 96 matches

Čapljina away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Hadžići attack 1.16 + Čapljina defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.56

Čapljina attack 0.91 + Radnik Hadžići defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Radnik Hadžići scores more
52%
level
25%
Čapljina scores more
23%

Radnik Hadžići at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Radnik Hadžići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnik Hadžići vs Čapljina

Radnik Hadžići and Čapljina drew 0-0 in 1st League - FBiH on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Hadžići.