Radnik Bijeljina 2–2 Slavija: Result & Stats

Radnik Bijeljina

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Slavija

3/18/2023

1st League - RS · RS - 19Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Radnik Bijeljina66%

×Draw21%

Slavija12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnik BijeljinaExpected goals in this matchSlavija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.67

Radnik Bijeljina

1.89

Slavija

0.67

Radnik Bijeljina creates 182% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 103 away

2.18

creates per match

0.90

0.44

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Radnik Bijeljina

2.18

Slavija

0.90

allows per match

Radnik Bijeljina

0.44

Slavija

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnik Bijeljina+0.00on par

Slavija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Bijeljina ↓

Slavija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Radnik Bijeljina or draw

88%

Radnik Bijeljina or Slavija

79%

Draw or Slavija

34%

Winning margin

Radnik Bijeljina wins by 2+

40%

Slavija wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Radnik Bijeljina 1+ goals

85%

Radnik Bijeljina 2+ goals

56%

Radnik Bijeljina 3+ goals

29%

Slavija 1+ goals

49%

Slavija 2+ goals

15%

Slavija 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Radnik Bijeljina (draw refunded)

84%

Slavija (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Bijeljina at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.44 · 34 matches

Slavija away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Bijeljina attack 2.18 + Slavija defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.89

Slavija attack 0.90 + Radnik Bijeljina defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Radnik Bijeljina scores more

66%

level

21%

Slavija scores more

12%

Radnik Bijeljina at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Radnik Bijeljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff