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Radnik Bijeljina vs Modriča — 1st League - RS 2019

Radnik Bijeljina
Radnik Bijeljina
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Modriča
Modriča
3/9/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 19Stadion Etno Selo Stanisići

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Radnik Bijeljina76%
×Draw16%
Modriča8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnik Bijeljina
2.26
Modriča
0.57

Radnik Bijeljina creates 296% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 71 away

creates per match

Radnik Bijeljina
2.18
Modriča
0.70

allows per match

Radnik Bijeljina
0.44
Modriča
2.34

finishing

Radnik Bijeljina+0.00on par
Modriča+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Bijeljina ↓

Modriča →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Radnik Bijeljina or draw
92%
Radnik Bijeljina or Modriča
84%
Draw or Modriča
24%

Winning margin

Radnik Bijeljina wins by 2+
51%
Modriča wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Radnik Bijeljina 1+ goals
89%
Radnik Bijeljina 2+ goals
66%
Radnik Bijeljina 3+ goals
39%
Modriča 1+ goals
43%
Modriča 2+ goals
11%
Modriča 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Radnik Bijeljina (draw refunded)
91%
Modriča (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Bijeljina at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.44 · 34 matches

Modriča away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.34 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Bijeljina attack 2.18 + Modriča defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.26

Modriča attack 0.70 + Radnik Bijeljina defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Radnik Bijeljina scores more
76%
level
16%
Modriča scores more
8%

Radnik Bijeljina at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Radnik Bijeljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnik Bijeljina vs Modriča

Radnik Bijeljina beat Modriča 2-0 in 1st League - RS on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Etno Selo Stanisići in Stanisići.