Radnik Bijeljina 3–1 GOŠK Gabela: Result & Stats

Radnik Bijeljina

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

GOŠK Gabela

Đ. Pantelić 68'

D. Krajišnik 49' (pen)

A. Vasić 45+8' (pen)

M. Šroler 4'

11/4/2024

Premijer Liga · Round 12Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Radnik Bijeljina53%

×Draw24%

GOŠK Gabela24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnik BijeljinaExpected goals in this matchGOŠK Gabela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.08

Radnik Bijeljina

1.73

GOŠK Gabela

1.08

Radnik Bijeljina creates 60% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 34 away

1.26

creates per match

1.15

1.01

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Radnik Bijeljina

1.26

GOŠK Gabela

1.15

allows per match

Radnik Bijeljina

1.01

GOŠK Gabela

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnik Bijeljina+0.00on par

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Bijeljina ↓

GOŠK Gabela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Radnik Bijeljina or draw

76%

Radnik Bijeljina or GOŠK Gabela

76%

Draw or GOŠK Gabela

47%

Winning margin

Radnik Bijeljina wins by 2+

29%

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Radnik Bijeljina 1+ goals

82%

Radnik Bijeljina 2+ goals

52%

Radnik Bijeljina 3+ goals

25%

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals

66%

GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals

29%

GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Radnik Bijeljina (draw refunded)

69%

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Bijeljina at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.01 · 73 matches

GOŠK Gabela away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Bijeljina attack 1.26 + GOŠK Gabela defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.73

GOŠK Gabela attack 1.15 + Radnik Bijeljina defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Radnik Bijeljina scores more

53%

level

24%

GOŠK Gabela scores more

24%

Radnik Bijeljina at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Radnik Bijeljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

M. Šroler

20'

N. Peric

26'

D. Krajisnik

42'

S. JosipovicGoal Disallowed - offside

45+12'

F. Gogic

45+8'

A. VasićPenalty

49'

D. KrajišnikPenalty

68'

Đ. Pantelić

71'

M. Maricic

72'

V. Lukić← N. Perić

72'

F. Mihaljević← E. Sipović

74'

M. Mandic

76'

S. Jovanović← Nathan

82'

M. Sroler

83'

S. Subašić← M. Mehanović

83'

S. Santrač← M. Maričić

85'

I. Novaković← G. Čoko

85'

H. Ljukovac← D. Lagumdžija

87'

S. Subasic

89'

A. Janjić← D. Teodorović

89'

O. Klenpić← S. Josipović

Radnik

GOŠK

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: V. Đurić

76'▲S. Jovanović←▼Nathan

83'▲S. Subašić←▼M. Mehanović

83'▲S. Santrač←▼M. Maričić

89'▲A. Janjić←▼D. Teodorović

89'▲O. Klenpić←▼S. Josipović

Radnik Bijeljina substitutes

JovanovićSubašićSantračJanjićKlenpić

Manager: J. Obšivač

72'▲V. Lukić←▼N. Perić

72'▲F. Mihaljević←▼E. Sipović

85'▲I. Novaković←▼G. Čoko

85'▲H. Ljukovac←▼D. Lagumdžija

GOŠK Gabela substitutes

LukićMihaljevićNovakovićLjukovac

Premijer Liga: Radnik Bijeljina 3–1 GOŠK Gabela

Radnik Bijeljina beat GOŠK Gabela 3-1 in Premijer Liga on November 4, 2024.

Goals: M. Šroler (4'), A. Vasić (45+8' pen), D. Krajišnik (49' pen), Đ. Pantelić (68').

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Bijeljina.

Radnik Bijeljina vs GOŠK Gabela — Premijer Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premijer Liga: Radnik Bijeljina 3–1 GOŠK Gabela