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Radnički Zrenjanin vs Vojvodina 1928 — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Zrenjanin
Radnički Zrenjanin
FT
5 – 1
Vojvodina 1928
Vojvodina 1928
4/28/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 31Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Radnički Zrenjanin61%
×Draw22%
Vojvodina 192817%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.91
Vojvodina 1928
0.90

Radnički Zrenjanin creates 112% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 43 away

creates per match

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.62
Vojvodina 1928
0.72

allows per match

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.07
Vojvodina 1928
2.19

finishing

Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par
Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Zrenjanin ↓

Vojvodina 1928 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Radnički Zrenjanin or draw
83%
Radnički Zrenjanin or Vojvodina 1928
78%
Draw or Vojvodina 1928
39%

Winning margin

Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+
36%
Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals
85%
Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals
57%
Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals
30%
Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals
59%
Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals
23%
Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)
78%
Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Zrenjanin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Vojvodina 1928 away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.62 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.91

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.72 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Radnički Zrenjanin scores more
61%
level
22%
Vojvodina 1928 scores more
17%

Radnički Zrenjanin at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Radnički Zrenjanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Radnički Zrenjanin 5–1 Vojvodina 1928

Radnički Zrenjanin beat Vojvodina 1928 5-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Sombor.