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Radnički Zrenjanin vs Stari Grad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Zrenjanin
Radnički Zrenjanin
FT
2 – 1
Stari Grad
Stari Grad
10/23/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 11Stadion Fk Radnički Zrenjanin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Radnički Zrenjanin54%
×Draw23%
Stari Grad23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.78
Stari Grad
1.08

Radnički Zrenjanin creates 65% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 34 away

creates per match

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.62
Stari Grad
1.09

allows per match

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.07
Stari Grad
1.94

finishing

Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par
Stari Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Zrenjanin ↓

Stari Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Radnički Zrenjanin or draw
77%
Radnički Zrenjanin or Stari Grad
77%
Draw or Stari Grad
46%

Winning margin

Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+
30%
Stari Grad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals
83%
Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals
53%
Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals
26%
Stari Grad 1+ goals
66%
Stari Grad 2+ goals
29%
Stari Grad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)
70%
Stari Grad (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Zrenjanin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Stari Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.62 + Stari Grad defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.78

Stari Grad attack 1.09 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Radnički Zrenjanin scores more
54%
level
23%
Stari Grad scores more
23%

Radnički Zrenjanin at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Radnički Zrenjanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnički Zrenjanin vs Stari Grad

Radnički Zrenjanin beat Stari Grad 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Fk Radnički Zrenjanin in Zrenjanin.