Radnički Zrenjanin 5–0 Stanišić: Result & Stats

Radnički Zrenjanin

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stanišić

6/3/2023

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 29Stadion kod Skrobare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Radnički Zrenjanin69%

×Draw18%

Stanišić12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički ZrenjaninExpected goals in this matchStanišić

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

0.82

Radnički Zrenjanin

2.24

Stanišić

0.82

Radnički Zrenjanin creates 173% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 14 away

1.62

creates per match

0.57

1.07

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.62

Stanišić

0.57

allows per match

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.07

Stanišić

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par

Stanišić+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Zrenjanin ↓

Stanišić →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Radnički Zrenjanin or draw

88%

Radnički Zrenjanin or Stanišić

82%

Draw or Stanišić

31%

Winning margin

Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+

46%

Stanišić wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals

89%

Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals

65%

Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals

38%

Stanišić 1+ goals

56%

Stanišić 2+ goals

20%

Stanišić 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)

85%

Stanišić (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Zrenjanin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Stanišić away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.62 + Stanišić defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.24

Stanišić attack 0.57 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Radnički Zrenjanin scores more

69%

level

18%

Stanišić scores more

12%

Radnički Zrenjanin at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Radnički Zrenjanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff