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Radnički Zrenjanin vs Sloboda Novi Kozarci — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Zrenjanin
Radnički Zrenjanin
FT
0 – 1
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
11/14/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 17Stadion Fk Radnički Zrenjanin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Radnički Zrenjanin61%
×Draw22%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.94
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
0.93

Radnički Zrenjanin creates 109% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 19 away

creates per match

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.62
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
0.79

allows per match

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.07
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
2.26

finishing

Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par
Sloboda Novi Kozarci+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Zrenjanin ↓

Sloboda Novi Kozarci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Radnički Zrenjanin or draw
82%
Radnički Zrenjanin or Sloboda Novi Kozarci
78%
Draw or Sloboda Novi Kozarci
39%

Winning margin

Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+
36%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals
86%
Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals
58%
Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals
30%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1+ goals
61%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2+ goals
24%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)
78%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Zrenjanin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Sloboda Novi Kozarci away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.62 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.94

Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 0.79 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Radnički Zrenjanin scores more
61%
level
22%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci scores more
18%

Radnički Zrenjanin at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Radnički Zrenjanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Radnički Zrenjanin 0–1 Sloboda Novi Kozarci

Sloboda Novi Kozarci beat Radnički Zrenjanin 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Fk Radnički Zrenjanin in Zrenjanin.