Radnički Zrenjanin 0–0 Radnički Sombor

Radnički Zrenjanin

FT

0 – 0

Radnički Sombor

9/16/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 7Stadion Fk Radnički Zrenjanin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Radnički Zrenjanin46%

×Draw25%

Radnički Sombor29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički ZrenjaninExpected goals in this matchRadnički Sombor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.18

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.54

Radnički Sombor

1.18

Radnički Zrenjanin creates 31% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 49 away

1.62

creates per match

1.29

1.07

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.62

Radnički Sombor

1.29

allows per match

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.07

Radnički Sombor

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par

Radnički Sombor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Zrenjanin ↓

Radnički Sombor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Radnički Zrenjanin or draw

71%

Radnički Zrenjanin or Radnički Sombor

75%

Draw or Radnički Sombor

54%

Winning margin

Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+

23%

Radnički Sombor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals

79%

Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals

45%

Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals

20%

Radnički Sombor 1+ goals

69%

Radnički Sombor 2+ goals

33%

Radnički Sombor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)

61%

Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Zrenjanin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Radnički Sombor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.62 + Radnički Sombor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

Radnički Sombor attack 1.29 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Radnički Zrenjanin scores more

46%

level

25%

Radnički Sombor scores more

29%

Radnički Zrenjanin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Radnički Zrenjanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff