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Radnički Sombor vs Radnički Zrenjanin — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
FT
2 – 1
Radnički Zrenjanin
Radnički Zrenjanin
3/26/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 19Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Radnički Sombor60%
×Draw22%
Radnički Zrenjanin19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Sombor
1.97
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.01

Radnički Sombor creates 95% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 87 away

creates per match

Radnički Sombor
2.16
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.08

allows per match

Radnički Sombor
0.94
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.78

finishing

Radnički Sombor+0.00on par
Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Sombor ↓

Radnički Zrenjanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Radnički Sombor or draw
81%
Radnički Sombor or Radnički Zrenjanin
78%
Draw or Radnički Zrenjanin
40%

Winning margin

Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
36%
Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
86%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
58%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
31%
Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals
64%
Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals
27%
Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
76%
Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Sombor at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.94 · 51 matches

Radnički Zrenjanin away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.78 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Sombor attack 2.16 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.97

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.08 + Radnički Sombor defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Radnički Sombor scores more
60%
level
22%
Radnički Zrenjanin scores more
19%

Radnički Sombor at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Radnički Sombor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnički Sombor vs Radnički Zrenjanin

Radnički Sombor beat Radnički Zrenjanin 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Sombor.