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Radnički Zrenjanin vs Omladinac NB — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Zrenjanin
Radnički Zrenjanin
FT
0 – 2
Omladinac NB
Omladinac NB
9/23/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 7Stadion kod Skrobare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Radnički Zrenjanin43%
×Draw27%
Omladinac NB30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.36
Omladinac NB
1.08

Radnički Zrenjanin creates 26% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 103 away

creates per match

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.62
Omladinac NB
1.09

allows per match

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.07
Omladinac NB
1.10

finishing

Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par
Omladinac NB+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Zrenjanin ↓

Omladinac NB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Radnički Zrenjanin or draw
70%
Radnički Zrenjanin or Omladinac NB
73%
Draw or Omladinac NB
57%

Winning margin

Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+
20%
Omladinac NB wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals
74%
Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals
39%
Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals
16%
Omladinac NB 1+ goals
66%
Omladinac NB 2+ goals
29%
Omladinac NB 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)
59%
Omladinac NB (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Zrenjanin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Omladinac NB away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.62 + Omladinac NB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.36

Omladinac NB attack 1.09 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Radnički Zrenjanin scores more
43%
level
27%
Omladinac NB scores more
30%

Radnički Zrenjanin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Radnički Zrenjanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Radnički Zrenjanin 0–2 Omladinac NB

Omladinac NB beat Radnički Zrenjanin 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion kod Skrobare in Zrenjanin.