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Radnički Zrenjanin vs OFK Vršac — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Zrenjanin
Radnički Zrenjanin
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
4/16/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 22Stadion Fk Radnički Zrenjanin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Radnički Zrenjanin42%
×Draw25%
OFK Vršac34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.54
OFK Vršac
1.36

Radnički Zrenjanin creates 13% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 43 away

creates per match

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.62
OFK Vršac
1.65

allows per match

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.07
OFK Vršac
1.47

finishing

Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par
OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Zrenjanin ↓

OFK Vršac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Radnički Zrenjanin or draw
66%
Radnički Zrenjanin or OFK Vršac
75%
Draw or OFK Vršac
58%

Winning margin

Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+
21%
OFK Vršac wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals
79%
Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals
45%
Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals
20%
OFK Vršac 1+ goals
74%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
39%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)
55%
OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Zrenjanin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

OFK Vršac away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.47 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.62 + OFK Vršac defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

OFK Vršac attack 1.65 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Radnički Zrenjanin scores more
42%
level
25%
OFK Vršac scores more
34%

Radnički Zrenjanin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Radnički Zrenjanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Radnički Zrenjanin 2–3 OFK Vršac

OFK Vršac beat Radnički Zrenjanin 3-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Fk Radnički Zrenjanin in Zrenjanin.