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Radnički Zrenjanin vs OFK Vrbas — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Zrenjanin
Radnički Zrenjanin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
OFK Vrbas
OFK Vrbas
5/3/2025Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 25Stadion kod Skrobare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Radnički Zrenjanin49%
×Draw25%
OFK Vrbas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.61
OFK Vrbas
1.10

Radnički Zrenjanin creates 46% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 30 away

creates per match

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.62
OFK Vrbas
1.13

allows per match

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.07
OFK Vrbas
1.60

finishing

Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par
OFK Vrbas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Zrenjanin ↓

OFK Vrbas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Radnički Zrenjanin or draw
74%
Radnički Zrenjanin or OFK Vrbas
75%
Draw or OFK Vrbas
51%

Winning margin

Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+
26%
OFK Vrbas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals
80%
Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals
48%
Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals
22%
OFK Vrbas 1+ goals
67%
OFK Vrbas 2+ goals
30%
OFK Vrbas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)
65%
OFK Vrbas (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Zrenjanin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

OFK Vrbas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.62 + OFK Vrbas defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.61

OFK Vrbas attack 1.13 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Radnički Zrenjanin scores more
49%
level
25%
OFK Vrbas scores more
26%

Radnički Zrenjanin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Radnički Zrenjanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Radnički Zrenjanin 1–2 OFK Vrbas

OFK Vrbas beat Radnički Zrenjanin 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion kod Skrobare in Zrenjanin.