Radnički Zrenjanin 1–4 Mladost Novi Sad

Radnički Zrenjanin

FT

1 – 4

Mladost Novi Sad

8/22/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 2Stadion Fk Radnički Zrenjanin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Radnički Zrenjanin33%

×Draw26%

Mladost Novi Sad42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički ZrenjaninExpected goals in this matchMladost Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.46

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.26

Mladost Novi Sad

1.46

Mladost Novi Sad creates 16% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 19 away

1.62

creates per match

1.84

1.07

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.62

Mladost Novi Sad

1.84

allows per match

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.07

Mladost Novi Sad

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Zrenjanin ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Radnički Zrenjanin or draw

58%

Radnički Zrenjanin or Mladost Novi Sad

74%

Draw or Mladost Novi Sad

67%

Winning margin

Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+

14%

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals

72%

Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals

36%

Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals

13%

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

77%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

43%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)

44%

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Zrenjanin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 1.84, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.62 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.26

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.84 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Radnički Zrenjanin scores more

33%

level

26%

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

42%

Mladost Novi Sad at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff