Radnički Zrenjanin 1–0 Hajduk 1912 Kula

Radnički Zrenjanin

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hajduk 1912 Kula

4/27/2024

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 25Stadion kod Skrobare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Radnički Zrenjanin50%

×Draw24%

Hajduk 1912 Kula25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički ZrenjaninExpected goals in this matchHajduk 1912 Kula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.13

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.69

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.13

Radnički Zrenjanin creates 50% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 72 away

1.62

creates per match

1.18

1.07

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.62

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.18

allows per match

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.07

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par

Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Zrenjanin ↓

Hajduk 1912 Kula →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Radnički Zrenjanin or draw

75%

Radnički Zrenjanin or Hajduk 1912 Kula

76%

Draw or Hajduk 1912 Kula

50%

Winning margin

Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+

27%

Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals

82%

Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals

50%

Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals

24%

Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals

68%

Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals

31%

Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)

66%

Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Zrenjanin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.62 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.18 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Radnički Zrenjanin scores more

50%

level

24%

Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more

25%

Radnički Zrenjanin at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Radnički Zrenjanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff