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Radnički Zrenjanin vs Bratstvo Prigrevica — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Zrenjanin
Radnički Zrenjanin
FT
0 – 1
Bratstvo Prigrevica
Bratstvo Prigrevica
9/18/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 6Stadion Fk Radnički Zrenjanin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Radnički Zrenjanin44%
×Draw27%
Bratstvo Prigrevica29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.36
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.06

Radnički Zrenjanin creates 28% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 42 away

creates per match

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.62
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.05

allows per match

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.07
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.10

finishing

Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par
Bratstvo Prigrevica+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Zrenjanin ↓

Bratstvo Prigrevica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Radnički Zrenjanin or draw
71%
Radnički Zrenjanin or Bratstvo Prigrevica
73%
Draw or Bratstvo Prigrevica
56%

Winning margin

Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+
20%
Bratstvo Prigrevica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals
74%
Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals
39%
Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals
16%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 1+ goals
65%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 2+ goals
29%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)
60%
Bratstvo Prigrevica (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Zrenjanin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Bratstvo Prigrevica away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.10 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.62 + Bratstvo Prigrevica defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bratstvo Prigrevica attack 1.05 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Radnički Zrenjanin scores more
44%
level
27%
Bratstvo Prigrevica scores more
29%

Radnički Zrenjanin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Radnički Zrenjanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnički Zrenjanin vs Bratstvo Prigrevica

Bratstvo Prigrevica beat Radnički Zrenjanin 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Fk Radnički Zrenjanin in Zrenjanin.