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Radnički Zrenjanin vs Backa — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Zrenjanin
Radnički Zrenjanin
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Backa
Backa
8/21/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 2Stadion Fk Radnički Zrenjanin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Radnički Zrenjanin54%
×Draw24%
Backa21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.66
Backa
0.93

Radnički Zrenjanin creates 78% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 37 away

creates per match

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.62
Backa
0.78

allows per match

Radnički Zrenjanin
1.07
Backa
1.70

finishing

Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Zrenjanin ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Radnički Zrenjanin or draw
79%
Radnički Zrenjanin or Backa
76%
Draw or Backa
46%

Winning margin

Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+
30%
Backa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals
81%
Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals
49%
Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals
23%
Backa 1+ goals
61%
Backa 2+ goals
24%
Backa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)
72%
Backa (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Zrenjanin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Backa away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.62 + Backa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.66

Backa attack 0.78 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Radnički Zrenjanin scores more
54%
level
24%
Backa scores more
21%

Radnički Zrenjanin at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Radnički Zrenjanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Radnički Zrenjanin 0–0 Backa

Radnički Zrenjanin and Backa drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Fk Radnički Zrenjanin in Zrenjanin.