Radnički Svilajnac 2–2 Vlasina: Result & Stats

Radnički Svilajnac

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Vlasina

11/4/2023

Srpska Liga - East · East - 13Stadion Bojača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Radnički Svilajnac54%

×Draw22%

Vlasina24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički SvilajnacExpected goals in this matchVlasina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.25

Radnički Svilajnac

1.98

Vlasina

1.25

Radnički Svilajnac creates 58% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 101 away

2.23

creates per match

1.40

1.10

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Radnički Svilajnac

2.23

Vlasina

1.40

allows per match

Radnički Svilajnac

1.10

Vlasina

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par

Vlasina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Svilajnac ↓

Vlasina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Radnički Svilajnac or draw

76%

Radnički Svilajnac or Vlasina

78%

Draw or Vlasina

46%

Winning margin

Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+

32%

Vlasina wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals

86%

Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals

59%

Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals

31%

Vlasina 1+ goals

71%

Vlasina 2+ goals

36%

Vlasina 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)

69%

Vlasina (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Svilajnac at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Vlasina away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.72 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Svilajnac attack 2.23 + Vlasina defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.98

Vlasina attack 1.40 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Radnički Svilajnac scores more

54%

level

22%

Vlasina scores more

24%

Radnički Svilajnac at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Radnički Svilajnac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff