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Radnički Svilajnac vs Toplicanin Prokuplje — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radnički Svilajnac
Radnički Svilajnac
FT
2 – 1
Toplicanin Prokuplje
Toplicanin Prokuplje
4/18/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 29Stadion Bojača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Radnički Svilajnac60%
×Draw21%
Toplicanin Prokuplje19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Svilajnac
2.12
Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.10

Radnički Svilajnac creates 93% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 42 away

creates per match

Radnički Svilajnac
2.23
Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.10

allows per match

Radnički Svilajnac
1.10
Toplicanin Prokuplje
2.00

finishing

Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par
Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Svilajnac ↓

Toplicanin Prokuplje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Radnički Svilajnac or draw
81%
Radnički Svilajnac or Toplicanin Prokuplje
79%
Draw or Toplicanin Prokuplje
40%

Winning margin

Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+
37%
Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals
88%
Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals
62%
Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals
35%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals
67%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals
30%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)
76%
Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Svilajnac at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Svilajnac attack 2.23 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.12

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.10 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Radnički Svilajnac scores more
60%
level
21%
Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more
19%

Radnički Svilajnac at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Radnički Svilajnac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnički Svilajnac vs Toplicanin Prokuplje

Radnički Svilajnac beat Toplicanin Prokuplje 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Bojača in Svilajnac.