Radnički Svilajnac 1–1 Timočanin: Result & Stats

Radnički Svilajnac

FT

1 – 1

Timočanin

4/17/2022

Srpska Liga - East · East - 22Stadion Bojača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Radnički Svilajnac57%

×Draw22%

Timočanin21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički SvilajnacExpected goals in this matchTimočanin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.08

Radnički Svilajnac

1.95

Timočanin

1.08

Radnički Svilajnac creates 81% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 73 away

2.23

creates per match

1.05

1.10

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Radnički Svilajnac

2.23

Timočanin

1.05

allows per match

Radnički Svilajnac

1.10

Timočanin

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par

Timočanin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Svilajnac ↓

Timočanin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Radnički Svilajnac or draw

79%

Radnički Svilajnac or Timočanin

78%

Draw or Timočanin

43%

Winning margin

Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+

34%

Timočanin wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals

86%

Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals

58%

Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals

31%

Timočanin 1+ goals

66%

Timočanin 2+ goals

29%

Timočanin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)

74%

Timočanin (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Svilajnac at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Timočanin away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Svilajnac attack 2.23 + Timočanin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.95

Timočanin attack 1.05 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Radnički Svilajnac scores more

57%

level

22%

Timočanin scores more

21%

Radnički Svilajnac at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Radnički Svilajnac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff