Radnički Svilajnac 0–1 Radnicki Pirot

Radnički Svilajnac

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Radnicki Pirot

8/27/2022

Srpska Liga - East · East - 3Stadion Bojača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Radnički Svilajnac48%

×Draw23%

Radnicki Pirot29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički SvilajnacExpected goals in this matchRadnicki Pirot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.39

Radnički Svilajnac

1.83

Radnicki Pirot

1.39

Radnički Svilajnac creates 32% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 74 away

2.23

creates per match

1.68

1.10

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Radnički Svilajnac

2.23

Radnicki Pirot

1.68

allows per match

Radnički Svilajnac

1.10

Radnicki Pirot

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par

Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Svilajnac ↓

Radnicki Pirot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Radnički Svilajnac or draw

71%

Radnički Svilajnac or Radnicki Pirot

77%

Draw or Radnicki Pirot

52%

Winning margin

Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+

26%

Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals

84%

Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals

54%

Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals

28%

Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals

75%

Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals

40%

Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)

62%

Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Svilajnac at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Radnicki Pirot away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.43 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Svilajnac attack 2.23 + Radnicki Pirot defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.83

Radnicki Pirot attack 1.68 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Radnički Svilajnac scores more

48%

level

23%

Radnicki Pirot scores more

29%

Radnički Svilajnac at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Radnički Svilajnac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff