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Radnicki Pirot vs Radnički Svilajnac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radnicki Pirot
Radnicki Pirot
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Radnički Svilajnac
Radnički Svilajnac
8/13/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 1Stadion Dragan Nikolić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Radnicki Pirot56%
×Draw22%
Radnički Svilajnac22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki Pirot
1.99
Radnički Svilajnac
1.17

Radnicki Pirot creates 70% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 78 away

creates per match

Radnicki Pirot
2.44
Radnički Svilajnac
1.37

allows per match

Radnicki Pirot
0.97
Radnički Svilajnac
1.54

finishing

Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par
Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki Pirot ↓

Radnički Svilajnac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Radnicki Pirot or draw
78%
Radnicki Pirot or Radnički Svilajnac
78%
Draw or Radnički Svilajnac
44%

Winning margin

Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+
33%
Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals
86%
Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals
59%
Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals
32%
Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals
69%
Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals
33%
Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)
72%
Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki Pirot at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Radnički Svilajnac away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki Pirot attack 2.44 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.99

Radnički Svilajnac attack 1.37 + Radnicki Pirot defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Radnicki Pirot scores more
56%
level
22%
Radnički Svilajnac scores more
22%

Radnicki Pirot at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Radnicki Pirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Radnicki Pirot 4–3 Radnički Svilajnac

Radnicki Pirot beat Radnički Svilajnac 4-3 in Srpska Liga - East on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Nikolić in Pirot.