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Radnički Svilajnac vs Radan — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radnički Svilajnac
Radnički Svilajnac
FT
1 – 1
Radan
Radan
3/21/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 23Stadion Bojača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Radnički Svilajnac50%
×Draw23%
Radan28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Svilajnac
1.85
Radan
1.33

Radnički Svilajnac creates 39% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 27 away

creates per match

Radnički Svilajnac
2.23
Radan
1.56

allows per match

Radnički Svilajnac
1.10
Radan
1.48

finishing

Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par
Radan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Svilajnac ↓

Radan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Radnički Svilajnac or draw
72%
Radnički Svilajnac or Radan
77%
Draw or Radan
50%

Winning margin

Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+
28%
Radan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals
84%
Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals
55%
Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals
28%
Radan 1+ goals
74%
Radan 2+ goals
38%
Radan 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)
64%
Radan (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Svilajnac at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Radan away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Svilajnac attack 2.23 + Radan defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.85

Radan attack 1.56 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Radnički Svilajnac scores more
50%
level
23%
Radan scores more
28%

Radnički Svilajnac at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Radnički Svilajnac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnički Svilajnac vs Radan

Radnički Svilajnac and Radan drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - East on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Bojača in Svilajnac.