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Radnički Svilajnac vs Morava Vladičin Han — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radnički Svilajnac
Radnički Svilajnac
FT
2 – 0
Morava Vladičin Han
Morava Vladičin Han
9/27/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 9Stadion Bojača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Radnički Svilajnac69%
×Draw17%
Morava Vladičin Han14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Svilajnac
2.51
Morava Vladičin Han
1.02

Radnički Svilajnac creates 146% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 19 away

creates per match

Radnički Svilajnac
2.23
Morava Vladičin Han
0.95

allows per match

Radnički Svilajnac
1.10
Morava Vladičin Han
2.79

finishing

Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par
Morava Vladičin Han+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Svilajnac ↓

Morava Vladičin Han →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Radnički Svilajnac or draw
86%
Radnički Svilajnac or Morava Vladičin Han
83%
Draw or Morava Vladičin Han
31%

Winning margin

Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+
47%
Morava Vladičin Han wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals
92%
Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals
71%
Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals
45%
Morava Vladičin Han 1+ goals
64%
Morava Vladičin Han 2+ goals
27%
Morava Vladičin Han 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)
84%
Morava Vladičin Han (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Svilajnac at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Morava Vladičin Han away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Svilajnac attack 2.23 + Morava Vladičin Han defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.51

Morava Vladičin Han attack 0.95 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Radnički Svilajnac scores more
69%
level
17%
Morava Vladičin Han scores more
14%

Radnički Svilajnac at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Radnički Svilajnac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnički Svilajnac vs Morava Vladičin Han

Radnički Svilajnac beat Morava Vladičin Han 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Bojača in Svilajnac.