Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Radnički Svilajnac vs Mladost Medoševac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radnički Svilajnac
Radnički Svilajnac
FT
4 – 0
Mladost Medoševac
Mladost Medoševac
3/14/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 21Stadion Bojača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Radnički Svilajnac63%
×Draw19%
Mladost Medoševac18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Svilajnac
2.30
Mladost Medoševac
1.16

Radnički Svilajnac creates 98% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 19 away

creates per match

Radnički Svilajnac
2.23
Mladost Medoševac
1.21

allows per match

Radnički Svilajnac
1.10
Mladost Medoševac
2.37

finishing

Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par
Mladost Medoševac+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Svilajnac ↓

Mladost Medoševac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Radnički Svilajnac or draw
82%
Radnički Svilajnac or Mladost Medoševac
81%
Draw or Mladost Medoševac
37%

Winning margin

Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+
40%
Mladost Medoševac wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals
90%
Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals
67%
Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals
40%
Mladost Medoševac 1+ goals
69%
Mladost Medoševac 2+ goals
32%
Mladost Medoševac 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)
78%
Mladost Medoševac (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Svilajnac at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Mladost Medoševac away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Svilajnac attack 2.23 + Mladost Medoševac defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.30

Mladost Medoševac attack 1.21 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Radnički Svilajnac scores more
63%
level
19%
Mladost Medoševac scores more
18%

Radnički Svilajnac at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Radnički Svilajnac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnički Svilajnac vs Mladost Medoševac

Radnički Svilajnac beat Mladost Medoševac 4-0 in Srpska Liga - East on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Bojača in Svilajnac.