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Radnički Svilajnac vs Dubočica — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radnički Svilajnac
Radnički Svilajnac
FT
0 – 2
Dubočica
Dubočica
5/27/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 28Stadion Bojača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Radnički Svilajnac45%
×Draw24%
Dubočica31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Svilajnac
1.66
Dubočica
1.33

Radnički Svilajnac creates 25% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 37 away

creates per match

Radnički Svilajnac
2.23
Dubočica
1.57

allows per match

Radnički Svilajnac
1.10
Dubočica
1.08

finishing

Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par
Dubočica+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Svilajnac ↓

Dubočica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Radnički Svilajnac or draw
69%
Radnički Svilajnac or Dubočica
76%
Draw or Dubočica
55%

Winning margin

Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+
23%
Dubočica wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals
81%
Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals
49%
Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals
23%
Dubočica 1+ goals
74%
Dubočica 2+ goals
38%
Dubočica 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)
59%
Dubočica (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Svilajnac at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Dubočica away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Svilajnac attack 2.23 + Dubočica defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.66

Dubočica attack 1.57 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Radnički Svilajnac scores more
45%
level
24%
Dubočica scores more
31%

Radnički Svilajnac at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Radnički Svilajnac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnički Svilajnac vs Dubočica

Dubočica beat Radnički Svilajnac 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Bojača in Svilajnac.