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Radnički Svilajnac vs Djerdap Kladovo — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radnički Svilajnac
Radnički Svilajnac
FT
5 – 1
Djerdap Kladovo
Djerdap Kladovo
10/7/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 9Stadion Bojača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Radnički Svilajnac61%
×Draw20%
Djerdap Kladovo19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Svilajnac
2.20
Djerdap Kladovo
1.14

Radnički Svilajnac creates 93% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 44 away

creates per match

Radnički Svilajnac
2.23
Djerdap Kladovo
1.18

allows per match

Radnički Svilajnac
1.10
Djerdap Kladovo
2.16

finishing

Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par
Djerdap Kladovo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Svilajnac ↓

Djerdap Kladovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Radnički Svilajnac or draw
81%
Radnički Svilajnac or Djerdap Kladovo
80%
Draw or Djerdap Kladovo
39%

Winning margin

Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+
38%
Djerdap Kladovo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals
89%
Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals
64%
Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals
37%
Djerdap Kladovo 1+ goals
68%
Djerdap Kladovo 2+ goals
32%
Djerdap Kladovo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)
76%
Djerdap Kladovo (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Svilajnac at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Djerdap Kladovo away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.16 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Svilajnac attack 2.23 + Djerdap Kladovo defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.20

Djerdap Kladovo attack 1.18 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Radnički Svilajnac scores more
61%
level
20%
Djerdap Kladovo scores more
19%

Radnički Svilajnac at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Radnički Svilajnac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Radnički Svilajnac 5–1 Djerdap Kladovo

Radnički Svilajnac beat Djerdap Kladovo 5-1 in Srpska Liga - East on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Bojača in Svilajnac.