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Radnički Svilajnac vs Car Konstantin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radnički Svilajnac
Radnički Svilajnac
FT
7 – 0
Car Konstantin
Car Konstantin
4/15/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 22Stadion Bojača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Radnički Svilajnac63%
×Draw19%
Car Konstantin18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Svilajnac
2.29
Car Konstantin
1.15

Radnički Svilajnac creates 99% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 42 away

creates per match

Radnički Svilajnac
2.23
Car Konstantin
1.19

allows per match

Radnički Svilajnac
1.10
Car Konstantin
2.36

finishing

Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par
Car Konstantin+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Svilajnac ↓

Car Konstantin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Radnički Svilajnac or draw
82%
Radnički Svilajnac or Car Konstantin
81%
Draw or Car Konstantin
37%

Winning margin

Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+
40%
Car Konstantin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals
90%
Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals
66%
Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals
40%
Car Konstantin 1+ goals
68%
Car Konstantin 2+ goals
32%
Car Konstantin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)
78%
Car Konstantin (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Svilajnac at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Car Konstantin away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Svilajnac attack 2.23 + Car Konstantin defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.29

Car Konstantin attack 1.19 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Radnički Svilajnac scores more
63%
level
19%
Car Konstantin scores more
18%

Radnički Svilajnac at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Radnički Svilajnac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Radnički Svilajnac 7–0 Car Konstantin

Radnički Svilajnac beat Car Konstantin 7-0 in Srpska Liga - East on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Bojača in Svilajnac.