Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 1–1 Sloboda Uzice

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sloboda Uzice

8/26/2023

Prva Liga · Round 4Stadion Hesna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica52%

×Draw28%

Sloboda Uzice20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički Sr. MitrovicaExpected goals in this matchSloboda Uzice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.72

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

1.36

Sloboda Uzice

0.72

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica creates 89% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 76 away

1.16

creates per match

0.62

0.81

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

1.16

Sloboda Uzice

0.62

allows per match

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

0.81

Sloboda Uzice

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica+0.00on par

Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica ↓

Sloboda Uzice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica or draw

80%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica or Sloboda Uzice

72%

Draw or Sloboda Uzice

48%

Winning margin

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica wins by 2+

25%

Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 1+ goals

74%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 2+ goals

39%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 3+ goals

16%

Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals

51%

Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals

16%

Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica (draw refunded)

72%

Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.81 · 91 matches

Sloboda Uzice away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.57 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica attack 1.16 + Sloboda Uzice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sloboda Uzice attack 0.62 + Radnički Sr. Mitrovica defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica scores more

52%

level

28%

Sloboda Uzice scores more

20%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Radnički Sr. Mitrovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff