Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 0–1 OFK Beograd

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

OFK Beograd

3/26/2024

Prva Liga · Round 26Stadion Hesna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica38%

×Draw28%

OFK Beograd34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički Sr. MitrovicaExpected goals in this matchOFK Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.13

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

1.21

OFK Beograd

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 20 away

1.16

creates per match

1.45

0.81

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

1.16

OFK Beograd

1.45

allows per match

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

0.81

OFK Beograd

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica+0.00on par

OFK Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica ↓

OFK Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica or draw

66%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica or OFK Beograd

72%

Draw or OFK Beograd

62%

Winning margin

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica wins by 2+

16%

OFK Beograd wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 1+ goals

70%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 2+ goals

34%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 3+ goals

12%

OFK Beograd 1+ goals

68%

OFK Beograd 2+ goals

31%

OFK Beograd 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica (draw refunded)

53%

OFK Beograd (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.81 · 91 matches

OFK Beograd away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica attack 1.16 + OFK Beograd defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

OFK Beograd attack 1.45 + Radnički Sr. Mitrovica defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica scores more

38%

level

28%

OFK Beograd scores more

34%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Radnički Sr. Mitrovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff