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Radnički Sr. Mitrovica vs Mladost Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
8/3/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 1Stadion Hesna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica36%
×Draw32%
Mladost Novi Sad32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
0.97
Mladost Novi Sad
0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 55 away

creates per match

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
1.16
Mladost Novi Sad
0.98

allows per match

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
0.81
Mladost Novi Sad
0.78

finishing

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica or draw
68%
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica or Mladost Novi Sad
68%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
64%

Winning margin

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica wins by 2+
13%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 1+ goals
62%
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 2+ goals
25%
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 3+ goals
7%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
59%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
23%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica (draw refunded)
53%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.81 · 91 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica attack 1.16 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.97

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + Radnički Sr. Mitrovica defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica scores more
36%
level
32%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
32%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Radnički Sr. Mitrovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 1–1 Mladost Novi Sad

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica and Mladost Novi Sad drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Hesna in Sremska Mitrovica.