Radnički Sombor 0–1 Tisa Adorjan: Result & Stats

Radnički Sombor

FT

0 – 1

Tisa Adorjan

3/6/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 20Stadion Fk Radnički Zrenjanin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Radnički Sombor52%

×Draw22%

Tisa Adorjan25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički SomborExpected goals in this matchTisa Adorjan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.26

Radnički Sombor

1.90

Tisa Adorjan

1.26

Radnički Sombor creates 51% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 64 away

2.16

creates per match

1.58

0.94

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Radnički Sombor

2.16

Tisa Adorjan

1.58

allows per match

Radnički Sombor

0.94

Tisa Adorjan

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Sombor+0.00on par

Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Sombor ↓

Tisa Adorjan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Radnički Sombor or draw

75%

Radnički Sombor or Tisa Adorjan

78%

Draw or Tisa Adorjan

48%

Winning margin

Radnički Sombor wins by 2+

30%

Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Radnički Sombor 1+ goals

85%

Radnički Sombor 2+ goals

56%

Radnički Sombor 3+ goals

29%

Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals

72%

Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals

36%

Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)

67%

Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Sombor at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.94 · 51 matches

Tisa Adorjan away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.64 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Sombor attack 2.16 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.90

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.58 + Radnički Sombor defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Radnički Sombor scores more

52%

level

22%

Tisa Adorjan scores more

25%

Radnički Sombor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Radnički Sombor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff