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Radnički Sombor vs Kabel Novi Sad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
CANC
14:30
Kabel Novi Sad
Kabel Novi Sad
5/6/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 25Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Radnički Sombor57%
×Draw23%
Kabel Novi Sad20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Sombor
1.76
Kabel Novi Sad
0.94

Radnički Sombor creates 87% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 44 away

creates per match

Radnički Sombor
2.16
Kabel Novi Sad
0.93

allows per match

Radnički Sombor
0.94
Kabel Novi Sad
1.36

finishing

Radnički Sombor+0.00on par
Kabel Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Sombor ↓

Kabel Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Radnički Sombor or draw
80%
Radnički Sombor or Kabel Novi Sad
77%
Draw or Kabel Novi Sad
43%

Winning margin

Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
32%
Kabel Novi Sad wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
83%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
52%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
26%
Kabel Novi Sad 1+ goals
61%
Kabel Novi Sad 2+ goals
24%
Kabel Novi Sad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
74%
Kabel Novi Sad (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Sombor at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.94 · 51 matches

Kabel Novi Sad away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.36 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Sombor attack 2.16 + Kabel Novi Sad defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.76

Kabel Novi Sad attack 0.93 + Radnički Sombor defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Radnički Sombor scores more
57%
level
23%
Kabel Novi Sad scores more
20%

Radnički Sombor at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Radnički Sombor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Radnički Sombor host Kabel Novi Sad

May 6, 2023: Radnički Sombor take on Kabel Novi Sad in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Radnički Sombor host Kabel Novi Sad at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.