Radnički Sombor 3–1 FK Becej: Result & Stats

Radnički Sombor

FT

3 – 1

FK Becej

9/19/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 8Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Radnički Sombor66%

×Draw19%

FK Becej16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički SomborExpected goals in this matchFK Becej

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.05

Radnički Sombor

2.33

FK Becej

1.05

Radnički Sombor creates 122% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 88 away

2.16

creates per match

1.16

0.94

allows per match

2.49

creates per match

Radnički Sombor

2.16

FK Becej

1.16

allows per match

Radnički Sombor

0.94

FK Becej

2.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Sombor+0.00on par

FK Becej+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Sombor ↓

FK Becej →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Radnički Sombor or draw

84%

Radnički Sombor or FK Becej

81%

Draw or FK Becej

34%

Winning margin

Radnički Sombor wins by 2+

43%

FK Becej wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Radnički Sombor 1+ goals

90%

Radnički Sombor 2+ goals

67%

Radnički Sombor 3+ goals

41%

FK Becej 1+ goals

65%

FK Becej 2+ goals

28%

FK Becej 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)

81%

FK Becej (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Sombor at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.94 · 51 matches

FK Becej away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Sombor attack 2.16 + FK Becej defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.33

FK Becej attack 1.16 + Radnički Sombor defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Radnički Sombor scores more

66%

level

19%

FK Becej scores more

16%

Radnički Sombor at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Radnički Sombor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff