Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FK Becej vs Radnički Sombor — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

FK Becej
FK Becej
CANC
14:30
Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
4/15/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 22Gradski stadion kraj Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

FK Becej41%
×Draw24%
Radnički Sombor35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Becej
1.58
Radnički Sombor
1.43

FK Becej creates 10% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 49 away

creates per match

FK Becej
1.69
Radnički Sombor
1.29

allows per match

FK Becej
1.56
Radnički Sombor
1.47

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par
Radnički Sombor+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Radnički Sombor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw
65%
FK Becej or Radnički Sombor
76%
Draw or Radnički Sombor
59%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+
21%
Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals
79%
FK Becej 2+ goals
47%
FK Becej 3+ goals
21%
Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
76%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
42%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)
54%
Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

Radnički Sombor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.69 + Radnički Sombor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.58

Radnički Sombor attack 1.29 + FK Becej defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FK Becej scores more
41%
level
24%
Radnički Sombor scores more
35%

FK Becej at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FK Becej host Radnički Sombor

April 15, 2023: FK Becej take on Radnički Sombor in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FK Becej host Radnički Sombor at Gradski stadion kraj Tise.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.