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Radnički Sombor vs Backa — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Backa
Backa
11/19/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 15Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Radnički Sombor62%
×Draw22%
Backa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Sombor
1.93
Backa
0.86

Radnički Sombor creates 124% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 37 away

creates per match

Radnički Sombor
2.16
Backa
0.78

allows per match

Radnički Sombor
0.94
Backa
1.70

finishing

Radnički Sombor+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Sombor ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Radnički Sombor or draw
84%
Radnički Sombor or Backa
78%
Draw or Backa
38%

Winning margin

Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
37%
Backa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
85%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
57%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
30%
Backa 1+ goals
58%
Backa 2+ goals
21%
Backa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
79%
Backa (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Sombor at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.94 · 51 matches

Backa away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Sombor attack 2.16 + Backa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.93

Backa attack 0.78 + Radnički Sombor defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Radnički Sombor scores more
62%
level
22%
Backa scores more
16%

Radnički Sombor at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Radnički Sombor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Radnički Sombor 4–1 Backa

Radnički Sombor beat Backa 4-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Sombor.