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Radnički Sombor vs Bačka 1901 — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
FT
2 – 2
Bačka 1901
Bačka 1901
9/14/2019Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 5Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Radnički Sombor60%
×Draw21%
Bačka 190119%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Sombor
2.08
Bačka 1901
1.10

Radnički Sombor creates 89% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 27 away

creates per match

Radnički Sombor
2.16
Bačka 1901
1.26

allows per match

Radnički Sombor
0.94
Bačka 1901
2.00

finishing

Radnički Sombor+0.00on par
Bačka 1901+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Sombor ↓

Bačka 1901 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Radnički Sombor or draw
81%
Radnički Sombor or Bačka 1901
79%
Draw or Bačka 1901
40%

Winning margin

Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
36%
Bačka 1901 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
87%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
61%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
34%
Bačka 1901 1+ goals
67%
Bačka 1901 2+ goals
30%
Bačka 1901 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
75%
Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Sombor at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.94 · 51 matches

Bačka 1901 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Sombor attack 2.16 + Bačka 1901 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Bačka 1901 attack 1.26 + Radnički Sombor defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Radnički Sombor scores more
60%
level
21%
Bačka 1901 scores more
19%

Radnički Sombor at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Radnički Sombor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Radnički Sombor 2–2 Bačka 1901

Radnički Sombor and Bačka 1901 drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Sombor.