Radnicki Pirot 2–1 Zarkovo: Result & Stats

Radnicki Pirot

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Zarkovo

9/27/2020

Prva Liga · Round 8Stadion Dragan Nikolić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Radnicki Pirot42%

×Draw28%

Zarkovo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnicki PirotExpected goals in this matchZarkovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.01

Radnicki Pirot

1.25

Zarkovo

1.01

Radnicki Pirot creates 24% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 69 away

1.19

creates per match

1.10

0.91

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Radnicki Pirot

1.19

Zarkovo

1.10

allows per match

Radnicki Pirot

0.91

Zarkovo

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par

Zarkovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki Pirot ↓

Zarkovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Radnicki Pirot or draw

70%

Radnicki Pirot or Zarkovo

72%

Draw or Zarkovo

58%

Winning margin

Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+

19%

Zarkovo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals

71%

Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals

36%

Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals

13%

Zarkovo 1+ goals

64%

Zarkovo 2+ goals

27%

Zarkovo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)

58%

Zarkovo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki Pirot at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Zarkovo away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki Pirot attack 1.19 + Zarkovo defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Zarkovo attack 1.10 + Radnicki Pirot defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Radnicki Pirot scores more

42%

level

28%

Zarkovo scores more

30%

Radnicki Pirot at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Radnicki Pirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff