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Radnicki Pirot vs Toplicanin Prokuplje — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radnicki Pirot
Radnicki Pirot
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Toplicanin Prokuplje
Toplicanin Prokuplje
11/13/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 14Stadion Dragan Nikolić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Radnicki Pirot64%
×Draw19%
Toplicanin Prokuplje17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki Pirot
2.22
Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.04

Radnicki Pirot creates 113% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 42 away

creates per match

Radnicki Pirot
2.44
Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.10

allows per match

Radnicki Pirot
0.97
Toplicanin Prokuplje
2.00

finishing

Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par
Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki Pirot ↓

Toplicanin Prokuplje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Radnicki Pirot or draw
83%
Radnicki Pirot or Toplicanin Prokuplje
81%
Draw or Toplicanin Prokuplje
36%

Winning margin

Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+
41%
Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals
89%
Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals
65%
Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals
38%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals
65%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals
28%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)
79%
Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki Pirot at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki Pirot attack 2.44 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.22

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.10 + Radnicki Pirot defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Radnicki Pirot scores more
64%
level
19%
Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more
17%

Radnicki Pirot at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Radnicki Pirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnicki Pirot vs Toplicanin Prokuplje

Radnicki Pirot beat Toplicanin Prokuplje 3-0 in Srpska Liga - East on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Nikolić in Pirot.